The Wall ST.
Journal is reporting that the US Federal Reserve is preparing to issue a new round of $1.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in the second quarter of 2018.
The Fed is also expected to add another $500 billion in mortgage credit in the fourth quarter.
We’re also hearing that the Fed is likely to add additional funds into the mortgage-purchase program this quarter.
But those are the highlights.
The key story is the Fed’s plan to tap into the economy to increase its supply of mortgage-linked securities.
It’s expected to tap $1 trillion worth of securities in its mortgage-indexed funds.
The Fed’s next round of mortgage securities will be about $2 trillion.
And that means that by the time the next round comes around, the Fed will have $2.4 trillion in its portfolio of mortgage bonds.
In other words, if the Fed adds another $2 billion to its $1-trillion portfolio of mortgages bonds, it will have enough to fund the next five quarters of its mortgage purchases.
But what about the $1,000-tranche?
What’s going to happen if the $2,000 billion of new mortgage bonds are backed by the $4.5 trillion in Treasury bonds held by the Federal Reserve?
And how will the Fed make sure that it doesn’t buy back Treasury bonds at a too-high price to the Fed?
Here’s a chart from the Fed showing the $3,000 per $1 in bonds that it holds in its $2-trilion mortgage-based securities portfolio.
It shows that $2 in mortgage bonds is about $1 per $3 in Treasury securities.
Why would the Fed add $2 to its portfolio in bonds?
The answer is that Treasury bonds are going to rise in value over the next couple of years.
And it’s not just the Federal Government.
It is the entire economy.
The economy is about to get much, much bigger.
So if the Federal Fed’s $2 of mortgage loans are backed up by $4 trillion of Treasury bonds, then the Federal government will have to purchase the Treasury bonds in the $5-trillions that the Federal Treasury holds.
And the Federal budget will have been cut in half, as a result of the Federal debt.
Why would this be good news for the economy?
Because it will put more cash in the hands of consumers.
It will make the Federal Budget easier to run.
It means that if the economy does well, the Federal deficit will go down.
And the Federal Debt will go up.
What about the Federal Trade Commission?
The Federal Trade Commision is supposed to be the watchdog on unfair trade practices.
It can levy fines, but the big question is whether or not the FTC will use its power to enforce the law.
As I noted earlier, the FTC is an independent agency.
Its job is to enforce antitrust laws.
But the FTC can also investigate claims of unfair trade.
And in the past, it has used that authority to bring antitrust lawsuits against large corporations, like Wal-Mart.
The FTC has also brought antitrust lawsuits to protect consumers.
So far, the agency has only brought a few cases against big corporations.
And most of those cases were for unfair business practices.
But now that the FTC has the authority to pursue claims of trade violations, it’s unlikely that Wal-Marts antitrust violations will be the only ones to be investigated.
I’d be interested to hear from anyone who has an opinion on whether the FTC should pursue such cases.
And if you think the FTC needs to investigate Wal-mart’s antitrust violations, do you think that the agency should use its authority to investigate other companies too?
The Federal Reserve has been very careful not to make a big deal out of its actions.
It says that it’s always on the lookout for violations of the Sherman Act and other antitrust laws, and it has taken aggressive action against Wall Street.
And there’s a big difference between enforcement actions that were taken by the Fed, which are generally seen as relatively modest and less than dramatic, and actions that are taken by Congress.
Congress has a lot of power, but it’s rarely used.
If the Fed continues to buy $2+ trillion worth in mortgage debt, then we’ll have to wait until 2020 to see whether Congress will act to force the Fed to pay back its $3+ trillion.
Will the Fed tap the $10-trabillion in reserves that it has?
That’s a guess.
It depends on how big of a debt the Fed thinks it can keep and whether it can sell more of the securities.
And at this point, the $15 trillion that the Treasury has held in reserve for mortgage-related purchases is only about $3 billion.
But that reserve is enough to buy a little more than a third of the total $2-$3 trillion that’s been held by banks.
And even if the Reserve does tap that